Arsenal player values and recent transfer rumors

With the transfer window open through October 6th, and Arsenal almost certainly not finished doing business, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at how much the Gunners’ roster is worth. Remember, even though some guys are almost certainly not going anywhere, every player ultimately has a price.

A handful of players have been linked with moves away from North London this window, including Sokratis, Lucas Torreira, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Shkodran Mustafi, and Alexandre Lacazette. Arsenal are looking to bring in midfield reinforcements, with Thomas Partey and Houssem Aouar being the two primary targets. Both are valued over £45M, so even with the Emi Martinez sale for £20M, the Gunners will need to scrape together some more cash.

The values below are from transfermarkt.us. I’m not the biggest fan of whatever it is their algorithm does (if they have one), but they are one of the only sites with numbers for everybody. I’ll do my best to point out where and why I think they’re off. The numbers also lag behind actual transfer prices for recent moves. I don’t think the valuations do a good job accounting for potential, which is definitely factored into the actual fees that clubs pay.

Bernd Leno, £27M
Feels about right given what Emi Martinez just sold for. The Gunners paid £19.3M to acquire the German keeper in July 2018.

Matt Macey, £215K
Sure. Why not. Arsenal don’t rate him as a backup keeper for Leno. He probably leaves on a free this summer.

Hector Bellerin, £35M
Seems about right for the 25-year old right back. Makes PSG’s recent £25M offer look unattractive. Also noteworthy: he was valued at £44M before he tore his ACL. His play is trending up, so now is probably not the time to sell.

Kieran Tierney, £24M
Feels low. Arsenal paid £25M for him last summer, and after recovering from injuries, he impressed in his first season in the Premier League. This number will go up. I’d have him at £30M.

William Saliba, £19M
Way off. I have no idea how a player that Arsenal paid £27M for last summer, who had a strong (if a little injury-hampered) season in Ligue Un, is now worth almost ¹⁄₃ less. His proper value is somewhere around that £27M fee from last year.

Sokratis, £7M
Might be slightly high. I’d be happy if Arsenal could get £5M for him if he moves this window. The latest reports had Napoli trying to get him on a free, which, no. If you want him on a free, you can wait until the summer. If you want him now, pay up, even if it’s not much.

Gabriel Magalhaes, £17M
So this one makes no sense. Yes, that valuation is from August 3rd, but he just moved for £25-27M. Even without getting into a debate about price vs. market value and discussing economics, that number is off. It should be much closer to what Arsenal paid for him.

Rob Holding, £8M
Low. I think he’s worth at least twice that, especially to another Premier League club. He’s a homegrown, probably starting-caliber CB. Come on. Liverpool just sold Dejan Lovren for £10M. Holding looked to be headed out on loan to Newcastle before Arsenal pulled the move.

Cedric Soares, £7M
I mean, Arsenal just got him on a free on the back of a £4M loan, so. And they’ve got him for 4 more years. Whee!

Shkodran Mustafi, £12.5M
Feels low, even though he is injured. Arsenal bought a 30-year old Sokratis for £18M two summers ago. Mustafi is 28. £20M feels right.

Calum Chambers, £12.5M
Given that he’s still recovering from a torn ACL, this is about right. When healthy, it feels like he and Rob Holding are more or less interchangeable value-wise even though Chambers is a year older. He’d be tough to sell right now. £15M would be a good price in January/next summer.

Pablo Mari, £4M
No idea. Arsenal paid £14M total for his move from Brazil. Mikel Arteta rates him, but I’ve not seen enough to have much of an opinion.

David Luiz, £7M
About right. £1M less than Arsenal paid Chelsea for his services last summer.

Sead Kolasinac, £14M
High. But that might be a bit biased. Could totally see him moving back to Schalke for, like, £12M or something. For the record, that move would make me quite happy. He has, in fact, been linked with that return, by the way.

Bukayo Saka, £30M
Low, but that might be familiarity bias talking. It doesn’t make sense to sell him right now because I think his current form and price is his floor. I doubt his value dips below what it is right now for a while, and it has the potential to increase significantly.

Dani Ceballos, £27.5M
Maybe a tad high, but about right. It’s unfortunate that if he continues on his current trajectory on-loan at Arsenal that his price is going to go up because I wouldn’t mind a permanent move for him to North London.

Mesut Ozil, £10M
It doesn’t really matter because he isn’t going anywhere. He has repeatedly made it clear that he intends to see out the last year of his deal in North London.

Lucas Torreira, £26M
About right. Torino reportedly recently offered the Gunners £21.5M. Have also seen reports of interest from Napoli and AC Milan. Having several teams interested in one of the players most likely to move away from North London this window is a good thing.

Ainsley Maitland-Niles, £12.5M
Definitely low. Arsenal reportedly turned down a £15M bid from Wolves for the versatile right-sided player. His homegrown status increases his value, too. I wouldn’t take less than £18M for him.

Mohamed Elneny, £4M
Another sure, why not value. I think Arsenal could get a couple million more if they were to move him, with a Turkish side being the likeliest destination.

Joe Willock, £14M
About right. English and homegrown make him more valuable to other Premier League teams.

Matteo Guendouzi, £27.5M
Tough to gauge his current value, given his discipline issues and exile from the squad during the restart. I think if a team offered that number or more, I’d take it. Selling him now would be selling in a trough, though. His value has dropped significantly with everything going on. He was rated over £40M in 2019.

Granit Xhaka, £20M
Seems right. He’s too important to the current setup to even consider selling, however.

Emile Smith Rowe, £2M
Very low. He’s worth £8-10M on potential alone. Plus he’ll be homegrown when he’s over 21.

Alexandre Lacazette, £41M
Seems a bit high, but apparently Arsenal have communicated a £40M price tag to Juventus and Atletico Madrid, who are both reportedly interested in his services. I think I’d be happy with £35M.

Willian, £19M
High based on his age. Nice that Arsenal signed him on a free this summer, isn’t it?

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, £48M
Tough to gauge his value. Fortunately, he looks to be about to sign a new contract to remain at Arsenal for three more years. I think if the Gunners had been forced to sell him, they would have asked for more than £55M, but he also has more value to Arsenal than to any other club.

Nicolas Pepe, £39M
Arsenal paid £72M last summer. The move probably cost Raul Sanllehi his job. I don’t want to talk about it.

Reiss Nelson, £11M
Slightly low, based on nothing more than that I’d be disappointed to see him move for that number. British and homegrown buoy his value.

Eddie Nketiah, £13M
About right, but I think this number will go up because he’s going to chip in some goals this season. Mikel Arteta likes him, and he’s going to get plenty of chances to make his mark.

Gabriel Martinelli, £21.5M
Low, but that’s probably because he’s out until at least December recovering from a meniscus injury. Wouldn’t even consider moving him for less than £30M right now. And he’s got a shot to be a star, so if I were in charge, I wouldn’t move him at all. Similar thinking to that for Bukayo Saka.