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xGunners: #Project24 Part 2

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I ran simulations for each of the different permutations of Arsenal’s top four odds.

Arsenal FC v Manchester United - Premier League Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images

There are eight matches left in the Premier League for Arsenal. A total of 24 points are up for grabs and winning out will guarantee a top four place. But what about if Arsenal collect fewer points how would that affect Arsenal’s top 4 odds, I ran my simulations for each of the different permutations.

Earlier this season I did this for the 3rd through 10th matches and in the end Arsenal ended with 22 points from the 24 up for grabs, and this really helped keep Arsenal in touching distance as they got used to the tactics of Unai Emery.

Match odds for the remaining matches:

#Project24 Odds

Fixture Home Win Draw Away Win Expted Points
Fixture Home Win Draw Away Win Expted Points
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Arsenal 0.3359 0.2374 0.4267 1.5175
Arsenal vs Newcastle United 0.6025 0.1957 0.2018 2.0032
Everton vs Arsenal 0.2898 0.2345 0.4757 1.6616
Watford vs Arsenal 0.2806 0.2288 0.4906 1.7006
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace 0.5272 0.2177 0.2551 1.7993
Leicester City vs Arsenal 0.3222 0.2378 0.44 1.5578
Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion 0.5787 0.2044 0.2169 1.9405
Burnley vs Arsenal 0.2684 0.2172 0.5144 1.7604

These are the odds of Arsenal earning the following points given the above odds in each match:

Getting the 24 points would be impressive but likely is a long shot, the most likely outcome is in the 13 to 16 point range. For me the minimum expectation from these matches has to be 16 points, that matches the same two points per game that Arsenal have done this season

The main difference between this #Project24 and the first version is that part two features a lot more away matches and while Arsenal are favored in every match. They have more than 50% odds in just four of the matches with two additional matches over 47%.

Now the top four odds:

#Project24 Top 4 Odds

Points Top 4 Total Points % Finish Points Points Per Game
Points Top 4 Total Points % Finish Points Points Per Game
24 100.00% 84 0.50% 3
22 100.00% 82 1.50% 2.75
21 98.50% 81 1.80% 2.625
20 94.90% 80 2.60% 2.5
19 92.30% 79 5.10% 2.375
18 91.70% 78 5.50% 2.25
17 90.40% 77 7.20% 2.125
16 86.60% 76 10.70% 2
15 81.00% 75 9.20% 1.875
14 72.40% 74 10.80% 1.75
13 56.00% 73 10.70% 1.625
12 45.70% 72 8.10% 1.5
11 32.50% 71 8.20% 1.375
10 16.90% 70 6.60% 1.25

In my simulation model the teams Arsenal are fighting for the last two Champions League spots average between 71 and 74 points.

Arsenal are in really good shape to make the top 4 after this weekends results. They have a pretty easy schedule compared to their rivals who still have matches against each other and the top 2.

***

A couple further notes: for these, I only changed the points that Arsenal get during this stretch of matches; everything else simulates like normal. The model also doesn’t dynamically change the team ratings during this stretch; if Arsenal were to reel off five or six straight wins, the stats that feed into this model would most likely improve increasing their team rating.