xGunners: #Project24 Part 2

There are eight matches left in the Premier League for Arsenal. A total of 24 points are up for grabs and winning out will guarantee a top four place. But what about if Arsenal collect fewer points how would that affect Arsenal’s top 4 odds, I ran my simulations for each of the different permutations.

Earlier this season I did this for the 3rd through 10th matches and in the end Arsenal ended with 22 points from the 24 up for grabs, and this really helped keep Arsenal in touching distance as they got used to the tactics of Unai Emery.

Match odds for the remaining matches:

These are the odds of Arsenal earning the following points given the above odds in each match:

Getting the 24 points would be impressive but likely is a long shot, the most likely outcome is in the 13 to 16 point range. For me the minimum expectation from these matches has to be 16 points, that matches the same two points per game that Arsenal have done this season

The main difference between this #Project24 and the first version is that part two features a lot more away matches and while Arsenal are favored in every match. They have more than 50% odds in just four of the matches with two additional matches over 47%.

Now the top four odds:

In my simulation model the teams Arsenal are fighting for the last two Champions League spots average between 71 and 74 points.

Arsenal are in really good shape to make the top 4 after this weekends results. They have a pretty easy schedule compared to their rivals who still have matches against each other and the top 2.

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A couple further notes: for these, I only changed the points that Arsenal get during this stretch of matches; everything else simulates like normal. The model also doesn’t dynamically change the team ratings during this stretch; if Arsenal were to reel off five or six straight wins, the stats that feed into this model would most likely improve increasing their team rating.