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xGunners: Week 3 Premier League Projections

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Arsenal host West Ham! The Jack Wilshere return! The start of project 24

West Ham United v AFC Bournemouth - Premier League Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images

Earlier this week I looked at the start of something that is coming to be known as Project 24. This is the start of big run for Arsenal where they are going to be the favorites in each match they play.

Beating West Ham will be a good start after two losses.

Arsenal vs West Ham

Arsenal are the favorites here and getting a win should be expected. In their first two matches West Ham have not looked impressive on defense and that should play right into Arsenals hands.

For the Arsenal defense I think that Felipe Anderson will be the main threat down the left hand side. Arsenal making sure that their press is working to ensure that Mark Noble and Jack Wilshere don’t have time on the ball to make passes will be key.

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur

One of Arsenal’s top four rivals will be dropping points here. I am really torn on who I want to see lose worse. I guess an ugly draw with a bunch of red cards is the best option.

The Rest of the matches

Some more even matches this week after a couple weeks of big favorites.

If you are interested in the detailed odds (like the ones for Chelsea vs Arsenal) I provide these for every match on my Patreon page here.

Finishing Odds

Using the same match odds that I simulated, I also ran 10,000 simulations of the season as whole. I put a few tables together to show the results in an easily understood (hopefully) visual format.

Simulated Odds

Team Title Top 4 Relegation Avg Sim Pts xG Dif
Team Title Top 4 Relegation Avg Sim Pts xG Dif
Manchester City 65.3% 99.4% 0.0% 88.65 61.73
Liverpool 25.4% 95.8% 0.0% 83.52 37.25
Chelsea 11.4% 89.1% 0.0% 79.62 39.84
Tottenham Hotspur 3.1% 69.4% 0.0% 75.13 20.82
Arsenal 0.6% 35.2% 0.0% 70.11 10.75
Manchester United 0.2% 16.5% 0.0% 66.08 12.76
Everton 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 55.19 2.21
Leicester City 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 54.08 4.38
Bournemouth 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 53.6 9.74
Watford 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 53.22 3.53
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 49.81 11.52
West Ham United 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 45.8 -5.51
Southampton 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 44.34 97.39
Crystal Palace 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 43.17 -10.29
Brighton & Hove Albion 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 41.4 -22.97
Newcastle United 0.0% 0.0% 28.5% 36.38 -116.53
Burnley 0.0% 0.0% 44.1% 33.92 -27.36
Fulham 0.0% 0.0% 53.7% 32.28 -28.04
Huddersfield Town 0.0% 0.0% 62.1% 30.89 -25.06
Cardiff City 0.0% 0.0% 74.2% 28.87 -28.77

This table shows the chances of a team’s finishing the season in each of the 20 places in the table:

This chart, a “box and whisker” plot, shows the range of probable points for each team in the league based on the simulations. Gray represents the lower half of the midrange of possible points (25-50%), yellow the upper half (50-75%) with the black bars representing the 10th Percentile and 90th Percentile:

Arsenal and Manchester United fell back a bit from the other top six teams. The middle is still a big shrug emoji while there is a bit of separation forming at the bottom of the table.

If you are interested in the methodology of the model, or for any of the work I do here, you can find that on my personal blog. And the updates that were made for this coming year.