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xGunners: Week 30 simulated odds

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Arsenal won’t finish in the top four

There are still nine matches left in the Premier League but with Arsenal all but eliminated from the top four race and not in the giant relegation log jam the league season feels like just a formality to finish up.

This weekend Arsenal face Watford but the main focus of the team will likely be on the second leg of their tie against Milan on Thrusday.

When I simulated the match, I didn’t make any adjustments for a rotated team so this simulation probably overstates Arsenal’s chances.

The other big match up is Manchester United vs Liverpool, it probably won’t really decide too much besides bragging rights (I guess also who is the first runner up to Manchester City) with both teams in a strong position to finish in the top four.

I have Liverpool as the favorite even with Manchester United having the home field advantage. This is the REALLY early game on west coast and I have been burned too many times by Jose Mourinho to wake up for a non-Arsenal match at 4:30am.

Full Week 30 odds

There are some interesting relegation six pointers with Huddersfield Town hosting Swansea and Newcastle United facing Southampton in matches that could go a long ways to breaking up the very bunched up bottom of the table.

If you are interested in the detailed odds for every match I post those on my Patreon page here.

Finishing Odds

Team Title Top 4 Relegation Avg Sim Pts
Team Title Top 4 Relegation Avg Sim Pts
Manchester City 99.8% 100.0% 0.0% 94.84
Liverpool 0.1% 93.3% 0.0% 76.73
Manchester United 0.2% 93.6% 0.0% 76.69
Tottenham Hotspur 0.0% 80.8% 0.0% 73.83
Chelsea 0.0% 41.0% 0.0% 70.1
Arsenal 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 61.78
Leicester City 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 53.2
Bournemouth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 52.53
Burnley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.01
Everton 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 46.8
Brighton & Hove Albion 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 43.21
Watford 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 42.05
Crystal Palace 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 41.93
Southampton 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 41.16
Newcastle United 0.0% 0.0% 27.1% 38.08
Swansea City 0.0% 0.0% 34.3% 37.28
Stoke City 0.0% 0.0% 34.1% 37.15
West Ham United 0.0% 0.0% 38.3% 36.81
Huddersfield Town 0.0% 0.0% 44.0% 36.18
West Bromwich Albion 0.0% 0.0% 66.1% 33.77

Simulated finish and points

Using the same match odds that I simulated, I also ran 10,000 simulations of the season as whole. I put a few tables together to show the results in an easily understood (hopefully) visual format.

This table shows the chances of a team’s finishing the season in each of the 20 places in the table:

This chart, a “box and whisker” plot, shows the range of probable points for each team in the league based on the simulations. Gray represents the lower half of the midrange of possible points (25-50%), yellow the upper half (50-75%):

If you are interested in the methodology of the model, or for any of the work I do here, you can find that on my personal blog.