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xGunners: Arsenal vs Manchester City Stats Preview Carabao Cup Final

Arsenal will need to play one of their best matches of the season to lift a trophy

Manchester City v Arsenal - Premier League
Thankfully Arsenal will be in their traditional red and white for this match
Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images

Arsenal have a chance to lift a trophy on Sunday.

It will take them playing one of their best matches of the season to beat one of the best teams in Europe to be able to do it.

When the two teams met in November, Manchester City won convincingly 3 to 1 but that match turned on a number of decisions that went against Arsenal and also a number of very dangerous balls from Manchester City that were inches from turning into high probability shots.

Manchester City this season

The above image shows Manchester City’s 5 match moving average for xG created and xG against. Early in the season they were amazingly good but since then they have not quite reached those same heights.

Early in the season they were the best attacking team in Europe, now they come in as 4th best offensive team. They lead Europe in shots on target per game, are 5th in danger zone shots per game (3rd from feet).

They are still the best attacking team in England but a significant margin combined with a very good defensive record, allowing the 2nd lowest xG against. They do this primarily through shot suppression, allowing just 6.48 shots per match with an about average shot quality allowed at 0.107 in xG per shot.

Carabao Cup Final Simulation

Arsenal have played Manchester City pretty well the last few times that they have played. If they can keep things tight, and take one of the few chances that Manchester City will allow they will have a chance for Arsène Wenger to lift a trophy he has never won before.