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xGunners: Top 4 race and Week 28 simulated odds

Running through top 4 scenarios

Chelsea v Manchester United - The Emirates FA Cup Quarter-Final
Who do you root for in this gross match up?
Photo by Ian Walton/Getty Images

This week is a weird one for the Premier League.

There is a full slate of matches except for their is also the League Cup final to finish things off on Sunday with the same two teams playing again just four days later in their regularly scheduled match up against each other.

There are two big clashes this week between top six clubs, but the Arsenal vs Manchester City one is over shaddowed by aforementioned League Cup final. On the other side of the table the relegation fight is still a major toss up with 11 teams within 6 points of the final relegation spot.

The Manchester United vs Chelsea match up has big implications for the top four race, and that will be the big focus of today’s post.

Before any Matches are played

Arsenal are clinging to the slimmest chances of making the top four through the League after being dominated by Tottenham.

Odds for Week 28

Predicting the outcome of the Arsenal vs Manchester City match is hard, it will really be interesting how things are determined by the result of the Cup Final four days earlier. I honestly have no idea how to go about modeling the different permutations of things that could effect things. If a team loses does that make them more likely to lose the second one? Or are they more motivated for revenge? Do the teams change tactics after seeing each other so close together? Are there major changes to the two team that face off? Too many questions that I wouldn’t know how to start to answer.

Based on my normal model Arsenal are defending 1.1 expected point but that seems really high. If Arsenal lose that is probably the realistic end to their top four chances.

Both Tottenham and Liverpool are defending about 2 expected points for their matches that they are heavy favorites in and with wins they can put a ton of pressure on both Chelsea and Manchester United.

The Different Scenarios

Liverpool, Tottenham, and Manchester United all win. Arsenal Draw (lol) and Chelsea lose.

Liverpool and Tottenham Win, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal all draw.

Liverpool, Tottenham, and Chelsea all win. Arsenal Draw and Manchester United lose.

Now for some more far fetched scenarios. Liverpool, Tottenham, and Arsenal win. Manchester United and Chelsea Draw.

Lastly the full dream scenario, Arsenal win, Manchester United and Chelsea Draw, Liverpool and Tottenham lose.

The really sad part about this is, that even with everything breaking Arsenal’s way they are still really far out of finishing in the top four.

Full Week 28 match odds

My focus this week is on what happens at Wembly but here are the rest of the match odds for this weekend.

I’ll work on a full preview of the Arsenal vs Manchester City Cup Final preview to publish before the match.

Winning a trophy would be a really cool thing to do this weekend.