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xGunners: Week 11 Premier League odds

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Odds for every match in the Premier League.

Arsenal wrapped up #project24 on a down note, but still managed to take 22 of 24 points which was by far more than I expected when this started. Now Arsenal have a tough test in hosting Liverpool at the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal vs Liverpool

Arsenal are underdogs for the first time since they faced Chelsea. I was hoping after a winning run during #Project24 that they would start to click more on offense but that wasn’t the case. With those subpar numbers (compared to their talent) their projection numbers are not as good as I would hope.

I have written up a stats preview of the match here, it is going to be tough because Liverpool are very good.

The Rest of the matches:

Finishing Odds

Using the same match odds that I simulated, I also ran 10,000 simulations of the season as a whole. I put a few tables together to show the results in an easily understood (hopefully) visual format.

Simulated Odds

Team Title Top 4 Relegation Avg Sim Pts xG Dif
Team Title Top 4 Relegation Avg Sim Pts xG Dif
Manchester City 65.3% 99.4% 0.0% 88.65 61.73
Liverpool 25.4% 95.8% 0.0% 83.52 37.25
Chelsea 11.4% 89.1% 0.0% 79.62 39.84
Tottenham Hotspur 3.1% 69.4% 0.0% 75.13 20.82
Arsenal 0.6% 35.2% 0.0% 70.11 10.75
Manchester United 0.2% 16.5% 0.0% 66.08 12.76
Everton 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 55.19 2.21
Leicester City 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 54.08 4.38
Bournemouth 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 53.6 9.74
Watford 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 53.22 3.53
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 49.81 11.52
West Ham United 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 45.8 -5.51
Southampton 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 44.34 97.39
Crystal Palace 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 43.17 -10.29
Brighton & Hove Albion 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 41.4 -22.97
Newcastle United 0.0% 0.0% 28.5% 36.38 -116.53
Burnley 0.0% 0.0% 44.1% 33.92 -27.36
Fulham 0.0% 0.0% 53.7% 32.28 -28.04
Huddersfield Town 0.0% 0.0% 62.1% 30.89 -25.06
Cardiff City 0.0% 0.0% 74.2% 28.87 -28.77

This table shows the chances of a team’s finishing the season in each of the 20 places in the table:

This chart, a “box and whisker” plot, shows the range of probable points for each team in the league based on the simulations. Gray represents the lower half of the mid-range of possible points (25-50%), yellow the upper half (50-75%) with the black bars representing the 10th Percentile and 90th Percentile:

If you are interested in the methodology of the model, or for any of the work I do here, you can find that on my personal blog. You’ll also find the updates that were made for this coming year on my blog.