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xGunners: Petr Cech’s penalty saving problems

When facing a penalty would it even matter if Petr Cech stood still and didn’t try to save it at all?

West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal - Premier League
Petr Cech goes the wrong way on a penalty
Photo by David Price/Arsenal FC via Getty Images

When Arsenal have a penalty called against them there are a number of things that go through your head.

A sampling:

What the F*!K is “Insert Arsenal Defender Here” doing diving in, in that situation?

How can the ref not see that was a blatant dive?!? He got nicked in the bottom of the boot and went down clutching his shin!

Arsenal’s midfield/fullbacks sure left the defenders a huge mess to deal with there. SMH.

Arsenal never get THAT called in their favor!

After you go through those you come to the realization that the man charged with trying to keep the penalty out of the goal is Petr Cech and your heart sinks as you mentally add one goal to the opponents tally.

For Arsenal Cech has faced 16 penalties on target and let in 16 goals. Cech is a good but declining goalkeeper but this is just a horrendous record for a goalkeeper on a top team (or one that like to think of its self that way).

via @PenaltyKickStat

The penalties he has faced have not even been all that great overall with many that are in very savable areas.

Danny Paige’s long term expected goal simulator

Taking these values and running them through the the odds of allowing 16 goals based on the 16 penalties he has faced is just 1.6%!

After watching him get sent the wrong way so many times, 75% according to the data it is becoming pretty apparent that shooters know that they can wait that extra beat and Cech will commit to a side and leave them with half the net wide open to shoot into.

Arsenal supposedly have a pretty sophisticated video and stats set up, that they should hopefully be able to help him do better with his preparation and being less easy to go the wrong way.

With how bad things have gotten maybe a radical idea of not diving at all and trying to defend the middle of the goal will throw a wrench into shooters plans to wait for him. At this point a radical change is needed because a certain goal on a penalty is hard to stand.