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Week 23 Premier League simulated match results

Arsenal try to save top four hopes, Manchester City face a big test to stay unbeaten.

Arsenal v Leicester City - Premier League Photo by Plumb Images/Leicester City FC via Getty Images

After an FA Cup weekend and a midweek set of League Cup first league Semi-finals it feels like it has been forever since we had a proper weekend of Premier League fixtures.

This weekend features a top of the table clash with Liverpool hosting Manchester City looking to avenge their 4-0 beat down at the Ethiad, while Arsenal try to keep their slim hopes for a top four finish alive with a trip to Bournemouth.

Week 23 Simulated Odds

The featured matches:

Simulated finish and points

Using the same match odds that I simulated, I also ran 10,000 simulations of the season as whole. I put a few tables together to show the results in an easily understood (hopefully) visual format.

This table shows the chances of a team’s finishing the season in each of the 20 places in the table:

This chart, a “box and whisker” plot, shows the range of probable points for each team in the league based on the simulations. Gray represents the lower half of the midrange of possible points (25-50%), yellow the upper half (50-75%):

This last table is pretty straightforward. It’s the odds of a team winning the title, finishing in the top four, or being relegated, and the average number of points earned in the 10,000 simulations run for this data:

Projected Finish

Team Title Top 4 Relegation Avg Sim Pts
Team Title Top 4 Relegation Avg Sim Pts
Manchester City 99.3% 100.0% 0.0% 94.33
Manchester United 0.4% 83.7% 0.0% 74.86
Chelsea 0.4% 83.3% 0.0% 74.44
Liverpool 0.2% 81.0% 0.0% 74.07
Tottenham Hotspur 0.1% 44.0% 0.0% 69.47
Arsenal 0.0% 19.6% 0.0% 65.88
Leicester City 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 53.06
Burnley 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 51.16
Everton 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 49.51
Bournemouth 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 45.51
Southampton 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 42.88
Crystal Palace 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 42.75
Watford 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 41.48
Huddersfield Town 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 41.13
Brighton & Hove Albion 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 40.93
West Ham United 0.0% 0.0% 23.9% 39.66
Newcastle United 0.0% 0.0% 22.9% 39.63
Stoke City 0.0% 0.0% 31.6% 38.56
West Bromwich Albion 0.0% 0.0% 48.0% 36.49
Swansea City 0.0% 0.0% 79.0% 32.11

Team ratings and expected points

Next up: team ratings, which are derived from the inputs that go into the model.

These team rankings use data from the 2015-16 season through the current season. Data that is more recent is weighted more heavily. Rankings are compared to league average, and scaled so that 100 is average. Each point above or below 100 represents 1 percent better or worse than the average team.

Last but not least is expected points for each team this season.

There are two expected points totals shown here. The first is based on the pre-match odds that I do before every match, as I have done above, and the second is based on the post-match xG that each team produces. More information on xPoints can be found here.

If you are interested in the methodology of the model, or for any of the work I do here, you can find that on my personal blog.