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The top 4: Points edition

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Applying the mathematical law of Arsene Wenger Average

Arsenal v Manchester City - Premier League Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images

With 10 matches left in the Premier League season for Arsenal Football Club and our club looking firmly out of any challenge, I decided it was a good time to predict where the Gunners will finish in the table. Then I’ll compare it to the rest of the Arsene Wenger era.

*Disclaimer - this week, I sent out a survey to our contributors asking them to pick the results for the final 10 matches of the season, in this article I pick the games based on the majority vote*

Arsenal are currently 6th in the table with 51 points through 28 matches, 2 points behind Manchester United, and 7 outside the top 4 positions with 1 or 2 matches in hand depending on the team.

Arsenal vs West Ham United - 3 points

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace - 3 points

Arsenal vs Middlesbrough - 3 points

Arsenal vs Leicester City - 3 points

Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur - 1 point

Arsenal vs Manchester United - 0 points

Arsenal vs Stoke City - 3 points

Arsenal vs Everton - 1 point

Arsenal vs Southampton - 3 points

Arsenal vs Sunderland - 3 points

Grand total: 23/30 points.

Some quick math leads us to 74 points total (51+23).

Over the Arsene Wenger tenure at Arsenal, the Gunners have averaged 75 points a season for 20 years. The lowest point total under Wenger was 67 in the final year at Highbury, with the highest point total - 90 - obviously coming in the Invincibles year of 2003/04.

By all accounts, if TSF’s prediction of 74 comes to fruition, it’ll be right on par with the law of Arsene Wenger’s average. What is more interesting is that, 75 is a strong average, and we finished 2nd with 71 points last year. So it would seem Arsenal are Arsenal through and through, there is no adjustment except by other teams from year to year. You can count of Arsenal to score between 70-80 points without a doubt. Those wishing Arsenal to win the league will have to rely on other teams performances to take a dip and score in the mid to high 60s for Arsenal to have a chance.

Since the inception of the English Premier League, the average 4th place finisher has been at 68.7 points/per season.

74 points would put Arsenal at least 5 points clear of that mark and in theory, putting them safely into the top 4. Rest easy, Gunners, the jokes may come, but Arsene’s favorite trophy may still be safe and attainable at the Emirates!