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Arsenal’s possible Champions League Round of 16 matchups

Barcelona? Not this year.

UEFA Champions League Trophy Tour - by UniCredit
still available
Photo by Srdjan Stevanovic/Getty Images

Hey! Arsenal won their group! WHO SAYS ARSENAL DON’T WIN THINGS

Sorry, got a little carried away there. Anyway, the Champions League group stages concluded today, and we now have a clear picture of who Arsenal might face in the round of 16. Here is the list of every team who qualified in second place:

Group A: Paris Saint-Germain
Group B: SL Benfica
Group C: Manchester City
Group D: Bayern Munich
Group E: Bayer Leverkusen
Group F: Real Madrid
Group G: FC Porto
Group H: Sevilla

As a reminder, no team can face another team from the same country in the Round of 16, so that rules out Manchester City for Arsenal, and PSG is off the table as well as they’re from the same group as Arsenal. Which leaves those other six.

There’s a dude in Spain, MisterChip, who has calculated the odds of any team drawing any other team in Monday’s draw:

I have no reason to doubt these odds, but I have reached out to him to try to get him to talk about his methodology a little bit. He does have a good track record, from everything I’ve seen.

Anyway, it looks like Arsenal are likely to draw our friends in Madrid - according to MisterChip, there’s a 21% chance of that happening. There’s an 11% chance of getting Porto, though, so that’s a thing!

The draw is Monday morning at the ass crack of dawn 3AM Pacific time, 6AM Eastern. It will be streaming on, among other places, and FoxSportsGo - we’ll have a thread up with actual links to actual streams closer to the draw.