This coming Monday, at 6 a.m. (yes, in the morning) ET/noon CET, the folks at UEFA will embark on the never-rigged, never-drawn-just-like-the-rehearsal-draw Round of 16 Ball Grab to determine the next home-and-away legs of Champions League action. Arsenal, who qualified by virtue of beating Borussia Dortmund 2-0 in their penultimate group game, sealed second place in Group D -- after looking like they might make a run at a -6 goal differential -- by beating Galatasaray 4-1 yesterday, while Dortmund dispatched Anderlecht to seal the group.
Here are the final group winners and second place finishers (with their point totals), after a day of action which included Barcelona's 3-1 handling of PSG to win its group.
|A||Atletico Madrid (13)||Juventus (10)|
|B||Real Madrid (18)||Basel (7)|
|C||Monaco (11)||Bayer 04 Leverkusen (10)|
|D||Borussia Dortmund (13)||Arsenal (13)|
|E||Bayern Munich (15)||Manchester City (8)|
|F||Barcelona (15)||Paris St. Germain (13)|
|G||Chelsea (14)||Schalke (8)|
|H||Porto (14)||Shaktar Donetsk (9)|
(And if you're scoring at home, that's three teams remaining from the EPL, three from La Liga, and four from Bundesliga.)
Per UEFA rules, a group winner faces a group runner-up in the Round of 16, and a team cannot face a team it played in group or a team from its own domestic league, meaning that there are six possible teams Arsenal could face. Some teams, notably Bayern and Chelsea, can only face five teams. Based on those numbers, there's a probability chart showing that Arsenal would be most likely (per who can face who) to be matched against Bayern Munich (24.048%), though Monaco's also up there (17.981%).
Thoughts? Predictions? Worries?