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2011/12 EPL Season By Numbers- Shots For, Home And Away

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I thought you guys might like a small glance at this post, the far heavier stuff comes later in the week.

Welcome to part 4 of the look at the 2011/12 EPL season. Now, we'll look at everything to do with shots for in a home and away split.

Join me after the jump

2011/12 EPL Table By Shots for at home per game

By Chart

Total_shots_per_game_home_medium

Team and in brackets is overall EPL finishing position

By Graphic

Total_shots_for_per_game_home_art_medium

As expected, Man City and Man United top the chart by this measure, and, they are small distance in front of the next teams in Spurs and Liverpool. Liverpool are in interesting case, they took an awful lot of shots this past season, and conceded few shots. They were crippled by hideous scoring %'s. Expect a big rebound from Liverpool, and that rebound would have happened in a statistical sense with Dalglish or Rodgers.

Villa were a dismal team to watch this past year and this is reflected here, Wolves and Blackburn climbed, but Sunderland, under the supposedly great O'Neill, slipped by this measure. Interesting team to watch under O'Neill, I don't think it'll be all rosy in a statistical sense.

The teams at the top of this chart were so dominant that it skewed the mean line so only 6 teams were the + of the mean. Dominant.

Stoke bottom, again, and they will feature at the wrong end of the stats in upcoming posts. Only a unique style and good goal sequencing in close (1 goal) games keeps them mid table.

2011/12 EPL Table By Shots For Per Game (away)

By Chart


Total Shots For Per Game (away)
Man City (1) 17.52
Spurs (4) 16.31
Arsenal (3) 15.21
Liverpool(8) 15.05
QPR (17) 12.94
Bolton (18) 12.73
Man Utd (2) 12.73
West Brom (10) 12.57
Norwich (12) 12.42
Chelsea (6) 11.89
Everton (7) 11.89
Wigan (15) 11.84
Swansea(11) 11.52
Wolves (20) 11.21
Fulham (9) 11.05
Sunderland (13) 10.94
Aston Villa (16) 10.42
Newcastle (5) 10.42
Blackburn (19) 9.42
Stoke (14) 8.52

By Graphic

Total_shots_for_per_game_away_art_medium

A wise man by the name of Gabe DesJardin once told me that total shots and not shots on target were the best predictor of which team would win a game, I wasn't sure at the time and I am still undecided. We look at total shots for (all shots including shots off target) and see some strong correlation. Man City 1st in shots for per game away, Arsenal up there, Spurs up there. Blackburn and a terrible, away performing Stoke side at the bottom.

How do we explain some of the stranger ones though? QPR with 12.94 shots per game and such a terrible away record (look at QPR's defense!) Bolton tied with Man Utd by this measure. Norwich above Chelsea, Wigan above Fulham, Wolves above Newcastle. There are strange results here, and they all need further contextualization to understand them fully. But I know this, shots on target, which is the most used of mainstream stats after possession, is a deeply flawed stat for being able to tell us who will not only win the game, but show us who is dominant in the game, in-game.

It's nigh useless in my opinion compared to it's more attractive sister;shots on target

Further reading

http://www.bitterandblue.com/2012/6/3/3061305/2011-12-epl-season-by-numbers-goals-for-and-against-per-point

http://www.bitterandblue.com/2012/6/4/3061435/2011-12-epl-season-by-numbers-home-and-away-goal-per-game

I am a writer for Bitter and Blue

Follow me on Twitter @benjaminpugsley

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